📈 Prediction Markets
Polymarket, Kalshi and on-chain event betting — is it trading, gambling, or both?
How Prediction Market Prices and Odds Work
A technical deep-dive into the price-to-probability relationship, how order books, LMSR, and AMMs set prices, what spreads and slippage cost you, and how fees erode returns in prediction markets.
📈 Prediction MarketsWhat Are Prediction Markets?
An introduction to prediction markets: how event-outcome trading works, why prices function as probabilities, and the long history from academic experiments to today's blockchain platforms.
📈 Prediction MarketsHow Polymarket Works: On-Chain Prediction Markets Explained
A technical walkthrough of Polymarket's mechanics: USDC collateral on Polygon, conditional tokens, the order book, UMA oracle resolution, non-custodial design, and why US users are officially excluded.
📈 Prediction MarketsKalshi and Regulated Event Contracts: The CFTC-Authorized Approach
How Kalshi became the first US-regulated event contract exchange, what CFTC designation means in practice, how it differs from offshore and on-chain prediction markets, and what legal battles shaped its path.
📈 Prediction MarketsPrediction Market Risks and Manipulation: What Can Go Wrong
A clear-eyed look at resolution disputes, oracle failures, liquidity-based manipulation, whale influence, regulatory seizure risk, and the ever-present possibility of total loss in prediction markets.
📈 Prediction MarketsPrediction Markets: Gambling or Trading? The Honest Debate
A fair examination of whether prediction markets are gambling, trading, or something genuinely in between — covering regulatory views, the role of skill versus chance, and when the line gets crossed.